Draft Analyzer

The Ultimate Package combines the best of the best in player rankings

The Ultimate Player Rankings package aggregates five of our best expert sources into one player ranking list to provide our users with the most accurate player rankings we offer. The theory behind this is that 5 expert sources will be more accurate than 1 expert source. In practice, this has proven to be true. While it is more fun to think about the top 5 to 10 fantasy players that you want to get in round one, it is the other 14 or so players that you draft that will really determine the success of your team.

The following analysis was completed for the 2006 season with 7 expert sources

The analysis shown below includes the top 250 players in 2006 based on actual performance using a basic scoring system. We then compared the actual performance of each player to their projected performance by each of the 7 expert sources as well as two aggregated sources. The Ultimate Player Rankings included an average of 5 expert sources and the Guru Player Rankings (no longer sold) included an average of 3 expert sources. We analyzed the data using not one, not two, but three different statistical methods. We have published all of our findings here.

The three methods used to analyze the data were:

• Standard Deviation (lower is better): Calculates the standard deviation of the entire range of differences between actual and projected points for the top 250 players by source. The Ultimate Package and The Guru Package both ranked 1 and 2 since they had the lowest standard deviation.
• Average Absolute Value (lower is better): This method takes into account the absolute value of the difference between each player’s actual and projected point values. The Ultimate Package had an average absolute value of 46.89 per player (point values ranged from about 200-400 points). In other words, on average the Ultimate package predicted fantasy points to within 46.89 points per player (about 10-20% across top 250 players). Once again, The Ultimate and Guru Packages both ranked 1 and 2.
• Accuracy Rating (higher is better): The third analysis method is a weighted rating method. This method took into account the total absolute value of the discrepancies for the top 250 players and divided it by the total actual points of the top 250 players. For example, Larry Johnson ended the 2006 season with 371 points. The Ultimate Package projected Larry Johnson to score 374 points. So the absolute value of the difference is 3. To find the accuracy rating, we use this simple formula: {1-(Absolute Value of the Difference between Actual and Projected Fantasy Points/Actual fantasy points)}. For this example, the formula would read: 1-(3/371). So The Ultimate Package had a 99% accuracy rating for Larry Johnson.

The tables below breakdown our analysis not only by source, but also by player position. The Utlimate Package ranks number 1 in all three statistial methods for almost every position as well. This simply states that The Ultimate Package not only has the best aggregate projections, but The Ultimate Package has the best projections in almost every positional category as well (QB,RB,TE,K).